Updated on Saturday 30 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 102809 (+1193) 1746019 (+24266) 406446 (+6455) 1236764 (+16618)
United Kingdom 38243 (+324) 272607 (+2099) 1172 (+5) 233192 (+1770)
Italy 33229 (+87) 232248 (+516) 152844 (+2240) 46175 (-1811)
France 28717 (+52) 186923 (+559) 67921 (+612) 90285 (-105)
Brazil 27878 (+1124) 465166 (+26928) 189476 (+11872) 247812 (+13932)
Spain 27121 (+2) 238564 (+658) 150376 (+0) 61067 (+656)
Belgium 9430 (+42) 58061 (+212) 15682 (+110) 32949 (+60)
Mexico 9415 (+371) 84627 (+3227) 59003 (+2962) 16209 (-106)
Germany 8504 (+34) 182922 (+726) 164245 (+885) 10173 (-193)
Iran 7677 (+50) 146668 (+2819) 114931 (+1943) 24060 (+826)
Canada 7063 (+81) 90909 (+933) 47905 (+944) 35941 (-92)
Netherlands 5950 (+28) 46328 (+176) 178 (+0) 40200 (+148)
India 4980 (+269) 173491 (+8105) 82627 (+11707) 85884 (-3871)
China 4638 (+0) 84123 (+17) 79382 (+11) 103 (+6)
Turkey 4489 (+28) 162120 (+1141) 125963 (+1594) 31668 (-481)
Russia 4374 (+232) 387623 (+8572) 159257 (+8264) 223992 (+76)
Sweden 4350 (+84) 36476 (+749) 4971 (+0) 27155 (+665)
Peru 4099 (+0) 141779 (+0) 62791 (+3349) 74889 (-3349)
Ecuador 3334 (+21) 38571 (+100) 19190 (+765) 16047 (-686)
Switzerland 1919 (+0) 30828 (+32) 28300 (+0) 609 (+32)
Ireland 1645 (+6) 24876 (+35) 22089 (+0) 1142 (+29)
Indonesia 1520 (+24) 25216 (+678) 6492 (+252) 17204 (+402)
Portugal 1383 (+14) 31946 (+350) 18911 (+274) 11652 (+62)
Pakistan 1317 (+57) 64028 (+2801) 22305 (+2074) 40406 (+670)
Romania 1248 (+13) 18982 (+191) 12829 (+200) 4905 (-22)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 360229 (+4559) 5840152 (+115312) 2414153 (+77564)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 357967 ( +2507) 5842477 ( +78991) 2465429 ( +63072)
Sun 31 May 2020 360321 ( +2354) 5918806 ( +76330) 2527787 ( +62358)
Mon 01 June 2020 362527 ( +2206) 5992396 ( +73589) 2589222 ( +61435)
Tue 02 June 2020 364590 ( +2064) 6063186 ( +70791) 2649538 ( +60316)
Wed 03 June 2020 366518 ( +1928) 6131140 ( +67953) 2708551 ( +59013)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 4638 (+0) 84123 (+17) 79382 (+11)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84068 ( +0) 78292 ( +0)
Sun 31 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84068 ( +0) 78293 ( +0)
Mon 01 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84069 ( +0) 78293 ( +0)
Tue 02 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84069 ( +0) 78293 ( +0)
Wed 03 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84069 ( +0) 78293 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 27121 (+2) 238564 (+658) 150376 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 27827 ( +15) 233755 ( +98) 156174 ( +662)
Sun 31 May 2020 27841 ( +14) 233843 ( +88) 156801 ( +627)
Mon 01 June 2020 27853 ( +12) 233922 ( +79) 157395 ( +593)
Tue 02 June 2020 27864 ( +11) 233994 ( +71) 157956 ( +561)
Wed 03 June 2020 27873 ( +10) 234058 ( +64) 158487 ( +531)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 33229 (+87) 232248 (+516) 152844 (+2240)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 32924 ( +42) 229874 ( +174) 151498 ( +1588)
Sun 31 May 2020 32962 ( +38) 230033 ( +159) 153012 ( +1514)
Mon 01 June 2020 32996 ( +35) 230177 ( +145) 154454 ( +1442)
Tue 02 June 2020 33028 ( +32) 230309 ( +132) 155825 ( +1371)
Wed 03 June 2020 33057 ( +29) 230429 ( +120) 157129 ( +1303)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 38243 (+324) 272607 (+2099) 1172 (+5)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 37746 ( +119) 264299 ( +894) 1495 ( +40)
Sun 31 May 2020 37855 ( +108) 265122 ( +824) 1536 ( +41)
Mon 01 June 2020 37953 ( +98) 265881 ( +758) 1579 ( +43)
Tue 02 June 2020 38043 ( +89) 266579 ( +698) 1623 ( +44)
Wed 03 June 2020 38124 ( +81) 267221 ( +642) 1668 ( +45)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 102809 (+1193) 1746019 (+24266) 406446 (+6455)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 101708 ( +532) 1724954 ( +11706) 420496 ( +10891)
Sun 31 May 2020 102196 ( +488) 1735893 ( +10939) 431423 ( +10927)
Mon 01 June 2020 102643 ( +447) 1746099 ( +10206) 442380 ( +10957)
Tue 02 June 2020 103052 ( +409) 1755606 ( +9508) 453360 ( +10979)
Wed 03 June 2020 103425 ( +374) 1764451 ( +8845) 464354 ( +10994)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 28717 (+52) 186923 (+559) 67921 (+612)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 28658 ( +34) 185109 ( +182) 66879 ( +236)
Sun 31 May 2020 28688 ( +30) 185262 ( +153) 67095 ( +217)
Mon 01 June 2020 28715 ( +27) 185389 ( +127) 67295 ( +199)
Tue 02 June 2020 28740 ( +25) 185495 ( +106) 67478 ( +183)
Wed 03 June 2020 28762 ( +22) 185583 ( +88) 67646 ( +168)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 8504 (+34) 182922 (+726) 164245 (+885)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 8196 ( +7) 180535 ( +139) 162268 ( +281)
Sun 31 May 2020 8202 ( +6) 180661 ( +126) 162520 ( +252)
Mon 01 June 2020 8207 ( +5) 180776 ( +115) 162746 ( +226)
Tue 02 June 2020 8212 ( +5) 180881 ( +104) 162949 ( +203)
Wed 03 June 2020 8216 ( +4) 180975 ( +95) 163130 ( +182)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 5950 (+28) 46328 (+176) 178 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 5867 ( +6) 44685 ( +22) 235 ( +7)
Sun 31 May 2020 5872 ( +5) 44704 ( +20) 243 ( +8)
Mon 01 June 2020 5877 ( +5) 44722 ( +18) 251 ( +8)
Tue 02 June 2020 5881 ( +4) 44738 ( +16) 259 ( +8)
Wed 03 June 2020 5885 ( +4) 44752 ( +14) 267 ( +8)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 9430 (+42) 58061 (+212) 15682 (+110)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 9378 ( +11) 55916 ( +32) 15484 ( +36)
Sun 31 May 2020 9388 ( +10) 55945 ( +29) 15517 ( +33)
Mon 01 June 2020 9398 ( +9) 55971 ( +26) 15547 ( +30)
Tue 02 June 2020 9406 ( +8) 55993 ( +23) 15574 ( +27)
Wed 03 June 2020 9413 ( +7) 56014 ( +21) 15599 ( +25)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 4350 (+84) 36476 (+749) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 4287 ( +32) 36253 ( +384) 5037 ( +0)
Sun 31 May 2020 4317 ( +30) 36621 ( +368) 5037 ( +0)
Mon 01 June 2020 4345 ( +28) 36972 ( +351) 5037 ( +0)
Tue 02 June 2020 4371 ( +26) 37307 ( +335) 5037 ( +0)
Wed 03 June 2020 4395 ( +24) 37626 ( +319) 5037 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 1051 (+13) 23155 (+330) 10692 (+132)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 1048 ( +7) 23306 ( +299) 10421 ( +149)
Sun 31 May 2020 1055 ( +7) 23593 ( +287) 10560 ( +139)
Mon 01 June 2020 1061 ( +6) 23868 ( +275) 10689 ( +129)
Tue 02 June 2020 1067 ( +6) 24130 ( +262) 10808 ( +120)
Wed 03 June 2020 1073 ( +6) 24380 ( +250) 10919 ( +111)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 1919 (+0) 30828 (+32) 28300 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 1905 ( +1) 30559 ( +2) 27874 ( +10)
Sun 31 May 2020 1905 ( +1) 30561 ( +2) 27883 ( +9)
Mon 01 June 2020 1906 ( +0) 30563 ( +2) 27890 ( +8)
Tue 02 June 2020 1906 ( +0) 30565 ( +2) 27897 ( +7)
Wed 03 June 2020 1907 ( +0) 30566 ( +1) 27903 ( +6)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 27878 (+1124) 465166 (+26928) 189476 (+11872)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 28237 ( +869) 476798 ( +20129) 207514 ( +12079)
Sun 31 May 2020 29087 ( +850) 497130 ( +20332) 220340 ( +12825)
Mon 01 June 2020 29916 ( +829) 517610 ( +20480) 233958 ( +13618)
Tue 02 June 2020 30722 ( +806) 538182 ( +20572) 248418 ( +14460)
Wed 03 June 2020 31503 ( +781) 558789 ( +20607) 263771 ( +15353)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 29 May 2020 7677 (+50) 146668 (+2819) 114931 (+1943)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 30 May 2020 7556 ( +25) 140699 ( +473) 116433 ( +1694)
Sun 31 May 2020 7579 ( +24) 141122 ( +422) 118074 ( +1641)
Mon 01 June 2020 7601 ( +22) 141506 ( +384) 119653 ( +1579)
Tue 02 June 2020 7622 ( +21) 141859 ( +354) 121162 ( +1509)
Wed 03 June 2020 7641 ( +19) 142188 ( +329) 122595 ( +1433)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.